Week Forward: India Q3GDP information, F&O expiry, FII circulate, world cues amongst key triggers for Indian inventory market

The Indian inventory market traded inside a decent vary to increase its corrective part whereas settling at its lowest since early June. Whereas choose pockets of the market confirmed resilience, they didn’t drive a broader, significant restoration.

Subsequent, traders will monitor some key market triggers within the final week of February. India’s financial development, the scheduled expiry of February’s by-product contracts, Donald Trump’s tariff bulletins, the rupee-dollar charge, international fund outflow, home and world macroeconomic information, and world market cues will dictate the market path within the subsequent 5 days.

Home fairness benchmarks Sensex and Nifty 50 prolonged their dropping streak for the fourth straight day to report weekly losses, dragged by auto, banking, and pharma shares on uncertainty over the impression of US commerce coverage, weaker rupee towards the greenback and relentless international fund outflows. 

Additionally Learn: D-Avenue Forward: How will the Indian inventory market transfer subsequent week? Key technical ranges for Nifty, Sensex

Each benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, closed close to their weekly lows at 22,795.90 and 73,311.06, respectively. In the meantime, broader indices—midcap and smallcap—rebounded by roughly 1.5 per cent every after a pointy decline, offering some reduction. On the weekly entrance, the Sensex fell 628.15 factors or 0.82 per cent, and the Nifty went decrease by 133.35 factors or 0.58 per cent

With no main home occasions, the persistent international fund outflows and feedback from the US President on potential tariffs stored market sentiment subdued all through the week. On the sectoral entrance, a combined pattern stored market members engaged. Metals, vitality, and realty outperformed within the week, whereas auto, pharma, and FMCG have been the highest laggards. 

India’s company earnings remained beneath strain, with Nifty 50 firms reporting modest 5 per cent development within the October-December quarter of FY25, marking the third consecutive quarter of single-digit will increase.

“India is presently lagging behind its Asian friends on excessive outflows. The “promote India, purchase China” technique yields returns. The market’s temper is cautious, with pessimistic sentiments more likely to linger till company earnings enhance markedly and a conducive atmosphere with simple world liquidity and stabilised forex emerges,” mentioned Vinod Nair, Head of Analysis, Geojit Monetary Providers.

Additionally Learn: NSE index rejig: BPCL and Britannia to exit, Jio Monetary, Zomato to enter Nifty 50 efficient March 28, 2025

This week, the first market will witness a softer pattern with a couple of preliminary public choices (IPO), and listings are slated throughout the mainboard and small and medium enterprises (SME) segments. The upcoming holiday-shortened week will likely be vital from the home and world viewpoint as traders will monitor home and world financial information, together with forex charges.

Listed here are the important thing triggers for inventory markets within the coming week:

India Q3 GDP development

Based on analysts, India’s GDP development is projected to decelerate to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent this fiscal 12 months, elevating issues about India’s company profitability and financial stability. Most score businesses and brokerages estimate the Q3GDP development between 6.2-6.4 per cent for the quarter.

The GDP information for the third quarter of FY25 is scheduled to be launched on Friday, February 28, at 4:00 pm. Together with the Q3 GDP information, the federal government will even launch the second advance estimate for the full-year GDP of FY25.

3 new IPOs, 5 listings to hit D-Avenue

No new IPOs are listed to be open within the mainboard section this week. Three new points will open within the SME section. Amongst listings, shares of High quality Energy Electrical Equipments Ltd will debut on the inventory alternate BSE. NSE on February 24. Shares of 4 new SMEs will debut on both BSE SME or NSE SME this week.

FII Exercise

International investor sentiment remained weak, with roughly $25 billion in outflows from international institutional traders (FII) because the market peak in September, pushed by issues over excessive valuations and a slowing economic system. 

Institutional exercise mirrored web FII outflows of ₹7,793 crore within the money section, whereas home institutional traders (DII) inflows stood at ₹16,582 crore, providing some assist to the market sentiment.

“FII promoting continues unabated within the Indian inventory market. After promoting shares for ₹81,903 crore by means of the exchanges in January, FIIs adopted it up by promoting shares for ₹30,588 crore by means of February 21,” mentioned Dr V Okay Vijayakumar, Chief Funding Strategist, Geojit Monetary Providers.

Additionally Learn: RBI MPC Minutes: Inflation reasonable in near-term, world commerce insurance policies pose danger to development outlook; 5 key highlights

“This takes the whole promoting in 2025, to this point, to ₹1,12,492 crore. The large promoting has resulted within the Nifty yielding detrimental returns of 4 per cent YTD,” added Dr V Okay Vijayakumar. “Since October 2024, India’s market cap has fallen by about $1 trillion, whereas China’s has risen by $2 trillion. This implies a tactical shift in FII flows,” mentioned Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founding father of Dezerv.

Information from NSDL reveals that International Portfolio Buyers (FPIs) pulled out roughly ₹25,000 crore from Indian equities in January 2024 alone, in sharp distinction to the substantial inflows of over ₹1.7 lakh crore in 2023.

World Cues

The week is about to be dynamic for world and Indian markets, pushed by key macroeconomic information releases and company earnings. Market sentiment will likely be formed by GDP, Housing, inflation, infrastructure, and core PCE information. 

On Wednesday, February 26, US New Dwelling Gross sales information will likely be launched
The US GDP Progress Price (QoQ) Second Estimates for This autumn will likely be launched on Thursday, February 27. Buyers will carefully watch traits in international institutional investor (FII) flows and updates on US tariff insurance policies.

Company Motion

Shares of SBI Playing cards and Cost Providers, Energy Finance Company Ltd, amongst others, will commerce ex-dividend within the coming week, ranging from Monday, February 24. A couple of shares will even commerce ex-split and ex-bonus this week. Examine full checklist right here

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50’s decisive break under 22,700 might set off the following leg of the downtrend, probably dragging the index to 22,500 after which 22,000. Learn full technical evaluation right here

Disclaimer: The views and suggestions offered on this evaluation are these of particular person analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We strongly advise traders to seek the advice of with licensed consultants, contemplate particular person danger tolerance, and conduct thorough analysis earlier than making funding choices, as market situations can change quickly, and particular person circumstances might range.